Trump's tariffs are all the talk these past few days. It is important to acknowledge they are a symptom rather than a cause. Ray Dalio's summarized this point nicely here.

Given much of my professional experience has revolved around crypto, here's me thinking out loud about what a strictly less globalized world order might mean for the industry.

Pros

1. Gold, and other "hard currencies", have historically thrived throughout human history when there's no clear empire in charge of a majority of world's economy. Bitcoin is supposed to be such a hard currency. We'll see if digital gold can complement the physical gold.
2. Tariffs, import/export controls, licenses, trade limitations will require a lot of rules, and rules are meant to be broken. Crypto has historically been a good technology to break such rules. Bitcoin, Ether, algorithmic stablecoins may be used to help circumvent the new wave of protectionist trade rules we'll get.
3. Similarly apps built on blockchain infrastructure can become viable alternatives to their present counterparts. Whether it's hosting data, transferring money, trading assets, the aggregate cost of offering these services via centralized providers has managed to stay lower than via decentralized ones. That was true in a globalized world. In a balkanized one, things may change.

Cons

1. Less capital will be available for risk assets. Crypto has certainly thrived from cheap capital that has gone into more speculative investments. Say goodbye to ghost chains with billions of dollars of market cap (which is way overdue tbh..).
2. As an infrastructure, public blockchains make more sense in a globalized world that demands equal access to products and services. In a fragmented one, that demand is significantly dampened. And since it's more cost effective to design and operate centralized pieces of infrastructure in the confines of one's own country, blockchains may lose some of their sex appeal as value settlement infrastructure.
3. Many crypto projects, especially those with a token, have benefited from the hive mind of the internet that is culturally Anglo-Saxon (for the most part). Economic and geopolitical fragmentation will rewind back the cultural globalization we've had since after WWII. It will be more costly for crypto projects to reach the entire world from a go-to-market stand point.
4. Crypto has benefited immensely from a global talent pool and remote work. I used to run a company where we had engineers from every continent apart from Antarctica. It made sense because there were zero or close-to-zero added costs to hiring from abroad. This will change. Talent will become more expensive.

There will be many more second order effects. The entire world order is shifting, and there's no where to hide. While I'm sad as I both benefited from and enjoyed a world that was more inclusive and frictionless, I hope that crypto can play a part in keeping individuals and cultures stay more connected.